Demand is picking up in overseas markets

Optical cable demand in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2029. Although the growth rate of cable demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 is relatively moderate, the future prospects are promising. Fiber optic cable demand is expected to grow by 1.8% to nearly 65 million core kilometers. Within the region, India is the leading contributor, accounting for more than 25% of the region's total cable demand. India's demand recovery is evident. Although cable consumption in India experienced a decline in 2023, it is expected to remain largely stable in 2024, increasing only slightly by 0.7% to reach 163 million core kilometers. Especially in the first half of 2024, cable demand in India fell by more than 11% year-on-year, but a recovery is expected in the second half of the year.

Among other Asia-Pacific countries, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam also show varying degrees of growth potential. Indonesia leads the way with a compound annual growth rate of 5%, while all other countries are growing between 3% and 5%. In the third quarter of 2024, cable demand in India was driven by a recovery in tender activity by private telecom operators, and this growth trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, further consolidating its important position in the regional market.

In North America, especially the United States, the demand for fiber optic cables is growing rapidly. This growth is mainly due to the development of rural FTTH construction, cloud computing, hyperscale data centers, generative AI, and government support policies.

The demand for fiber optic cables in North America increased significantly by nearly 6%, much higher than the global average. The United States is the largest contributor to fiber optic cable demand in North America, accounting for more than 88% of total demand in the region. Fiber optic cable demand in the United States is expected to reach 933 million core kilometers in 2024 and will achieve double-digit growth in the medium term.

The main reason is that the United States is vigorously promoting the construction of FTTH in rural areas, which is driving the demand for fiber optic cables. The combination of cloud computing, generative AI, and government policies is creating a growing need for high-bandwidth connectivity. The rapid growth of cloud computing and hyperscale data centers requires a large number of fiber optic connections to support data transmission and processing. At the same time, the application of emerging technologies such as generative AI has also put forward higher requirements for network bandwidth. The advancement of the Broadband Fair Access Deployment (BEAD) program has also provided financial support for the construction of fiber optic networks.

According to CRU's analysis, the global optical cable market is expected to recover in 2025, with demand growing by 6.2% year-on-year to 568 million core kilometers, with this growth mainly dependent on the stable performance of the US, Europe and China markets. However, due to the long-term imbalance between supply and demand, fiber prices will remain under continued pressure, although some markets may be more resilient. Data center construction driven by generative artificial Intelligence (GenAI) is expected to significantly drive cable demand in the coming years, with such applications accounting for 11% of total demand by 2029.